Friday, July 04, 2008 

On the travails of Boris and throwing things out the pram.

Justin asks what those of us who suggested some on the left were throwing their toys out of their pram on the election of Boris Johnson are feeling now that only 2 months in things seem to be going rather badly for Bo-Jo.

More than fair enough, as I used more or less those exact words at the time, although it should be pointed out I more objected to the view that people had voted for Boris for a joke rather than because of his record or policies against Ken's.

My second point was about the idea that Boris would be a disaster, and Liberal Conspiracy handily has a rather extensive list of "gaffes and controversies" already. The thing is generally the rather thinness of the list. Is Ray Lewis's resignation really a mistake on Boris Johnson's part or is it Lewis himself not being completely honest on his past? It looks embarrassing at the moment, but in a few months I would wager that no one will even remember who he was. Similarly, the hoo-hah about James McGrath and his swift despatching in fact reflected the fact that Johnson and the Tories as a whole are determined not to get caught up in the drip-drip of scandal which dogged Ken Livingstone towards the end of his tenure. That Lewis jumped ship far sooner than Lee Jasper did, even though the list of offences against Lewis, apart from his direct lie over being a JP is more minor that against Jasper also shows how sensitive and concerned the Tories are over Johnson's potential for embarrassing them.

The Independent Forensic Audit Panel sure looks like an attempt to defame Livingstone after the fact and is to be condemned, but accusing Policy Exchange of running things behind the scenes is pretty poor. The point about Socialist Action was that it was some far-left cabal, and let's face it, Policy Exchange is centre-right Cameroonies writ large with a grudge against Muslims. It's little surprise they're involved. Have to agree over Simon Milton, if only because of his links with Shirley Porter.

The Rise festival thing is a typical Tory u-turn, but whether many Londoners will care or not is another matter. Drinking on the tube, as some of the commenters suggest, isn't really a gaffe; if anything was a gaffe it was the utterly moronic parties on the last Saturday on the tube which were only going to end up one way and helped justify the unjustifable. Again, it might come down to what your definition of gaffe is on the press conferences, it seems more like an atypical politican's decision.

Now, a real policy disaster ought to have been the doubling of the bus fares on the poor, but again, what do you expect from any sort of Tory? The time to pursue Johnson over his real intentions was during the campaign, but instead what most on the left managed was either "Boris is an idiot and whoever votes for him is an idiot" or "he'll be an incompetent disaster". This list doesn't really show that he's incompetent; it shows that he's a Conservative politician.

The good thing about Johnson's victory is that now some virulent and ruthless individuals are dedicating blogs and other things to watching him, something we know the Evening Standard won't do, but as well as exposing his failures what also needs to be done is to build an alternative that can win the Mayorality back in four years' time. At the moment there's no one at all on the scene, or even an alternative party. We're still more concerned about what Ken thinks than anyone else, and he's not going to run again and he's not going to win again. It's not even as if some of us on the left really want Boris to fail because it might perusade the country at large that Cameron and co can't be trusted with being back in power: so many of us are fed up with New Labour in any form that the Blairite Tories look just like another set of bastards in slightly sharper suits and with slightly posher accents. In any case, we shouldn't be throwing brickbats at each other, but instead be uniting to find that alternative. Boris was never a better option than Ken, but pretending that he was an idiot or obviously going to be incompetent was a poor ploy. Next time we have to do better.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

Share |

Saturday, May 03, 2008 

Why Ken lost to Boris.

There's only one thing that's less attractive than gloating, and that's petulance and sulking. While some Tories are gloating, some on the left are throwing their toys out of the pram, and most of all, it comes back to two separate but connected ideas: that Boris is a joke and some of those who voted for him did so directly because of this; and secondly, that Boris will be a disaster. Watching Boris over the weeks leading up to the election proved that he is not a joke, a buffoon, or an idiot, if he ever was. He was not a match for Ken in my eyes, but well over a hundred thousand other individuals thought different. Moreover, those performances persuaded a huge number of voters that he would not be a disaster, and what's more, despite his stewardship of the Spectator through the more rough times, his constituency work shows that although the job of London Mayor is a huge step up, he ought to be a match for it. Pretending that he was otherwise was the first major mistake, and one that a lot are still making.

Apart from not taking Boris seriously, why else did Ken lose?

1) The 8 years factor. If 8 years is long enough for the US President, then it's enough for the London Mayor. It would be different if, like in the national election, you were voting for a party rather than an individual, but this was a battle primarily fought on personalities. Ken was always going to suffer from the "change" factor. Ken doesn't deserve any blame for trying for a third term, but it was always going to be a uphill struggle.

2) The assiduous work of Lynton Crosby in targeting the suburbs worked fantastically well, the turnout rising while Ken's constituencies were more apathetic. Ken's people worked extraordinarily hard, but in the end they just couldn't match it.

3) Genuine distaste for Ken. This went far beyond the cliched stereotypical few who hated him from the beginning -- his lack of humility up until he finally was beaten made it ever more difficult to sympathise with him. Calling a Jewish Evening Standard journalist a concentration camp guard and not apologising for it? Urging businessmen who weren't Iranian to take their chances with the Ayatollahs? Not dispatching Lee Jasper until the damage had been done, while alleging that all those who were questioning him were racist? His complete and utter, disgraceful defence of Ian Blair? All of these things hurt, and they added up over time.

4) The festering sore which was the Evening Standard's coverage. If this had been the equivalent of the Sun in 1992, then it wouldn't have made any difference. Instead this was the constant drip-drip-drip of real scandal, hyperbole and smear, going on over a number of months. As Toynbee said in one of her rare moments of clarity, those voting may not actually read the paper, but they do so the billboards all over London, and they get under the skin.

5) Lack of real difference with Boris over policy. Yes, Ken's policies on transport and housing were significantly different, but elsewhere Boris was forced over time as Sunny argues onto Livingstone's territory. This further forced the emphasis onto the personalities, and Johnson in contrast to Ken was fresh and worth a gamble on.

6) The monumental cock-up over the Olympics' cost. Londoners are going to be paying for this millstone around their necks for years to come, and while Livingstone was at least more honest about it than the obscurantist which is Tessa Jowell, he was still partly responsible.

7) Transport. As much as Ken had success on transport, for those without an Oyster card £4.00 for one trip on the Tube is obscene, while bendy buses, although seemingly an arcane issue for those of us outside London, also hurt, even if Johnson's numbers on Routemasters were ludicrous. Then we have those still angry about the congestion charge, not to mention the justified but obviously controversial £25 fee for the most polluting vehicles, then finally the low emissions zone.

8) Connection with Labour at large. Although Livingstone has always been separate from New Labour, he couldn't help but be lumped by some in with Brown and the polls in the local elections showed how this must have hurt him at least slightly.

9) Ken's friends. Sigh. Where to begin on this one? Al-Qaradawi, Jasper, Muslims 4 Ken, all must have put some voters off. The Guardian's article on the day by Zoe fucking Williams also didn't help.

10) Ken himself. At times during the campaign he looked utterly worn out. The allegations about his "drink problem" also must have had some impact.

11) And finally. Not courting second-preference votes persistently enough, or even explaining the system repeatedly and properly so that everyone realised how it works. The alliance with the Greens was a smart move, but the Left List vote collapsed so didn't help as much as it might have done. Not enough was done to court the Liberal Democrat voters' to go for Ken second, although Paddick's performance was poor in any case.

This isn't a time to be despondent. 4 years is a very long time in politics, and by then, with a different, fresh and representative candidate, the left could very well win the position back, especially if Johnson does turn out to be not up to the job. Ken's time had passed, and up against such a strong insurgency, he couldn't match up. This is the message to take, not that Londoners are morons, voting for an idiot and deserve everything they get. Don't despair; it's time to build again.

Labels: , , , , , ,

Share |

About

  • This is septicisle
profile

Links

Powered by Blogger
and Blogger Templates