Wednesday, May 08, 2013 

The cavalcade of idiocy rolls on.

If there's one day a year when it's impossible not to be proud to be British, it has to be on the state opening of parliament.  No other democracy can lay claim to such an awe-inspiring spectacle: the grandeur, the opulence, the incomprehensible and the entirely risible.  We might be behind most other countries when it comes to small things like having a democratically elected second chamber, but who needs a senate when you have a ceremony which involves a gentleman with a black rod entertaining the head of state? And what could be more quintessentially British than asking a 87-year-old woman to put on her finest rags, plonk a regal hat on her head that weighs about the same as a small bag of potatoes and then read out the political equivalent of a ridiculously vague shopping list, only rather than being on paper the list is inscribed on goatskin vellum? The European parliament can't even begin to hold a candle to the mother of them all.

To drop the irritating sarcasm, there can't be a better example of what can only be described as the cretinous decision to carry on with the state opening in its current form regardless of Brenda's advancing age than how even Fergie is deciding to jack it in at the end of the season.  He's 71, for comparison's sake. If we can't just dispense with the entire stupidity, then surely Charles can take the place of his mother, as is happening at the next meeting of the Commonwealth.  He is after all ever so keen to prepare for his kingship; let him announce how his mummy's government "is committed to a fairer society where aspiration and responsibility are rewarded".

Chaz would doubtless approve of the tone of the speech, if not with some of the policies (it's doubtful he approves of HS2).  If you thought George Osborne had overdone it a bit in the budget with the nonsense about how it was all for those "who want to work hard and get on", then it's probably best to avoid a television tonight, as those responsible for writing Queenie's sermon went off the deep end.  Hard work this and hard work that; those who do will be properly rewarded, not with a living wage of course, or a cut in VAT, or anything that might actually help with the cost of living, but indirectly through the continuing crackdowns on those not doing "the right thing".  Never mind, sheer aspiration and responsibility will get you there in the end.  Look at the example set by Dave's inner circle, all there purely on merit, achievement and hard graft.  What more inspiration do you need?

As for the proposed bills themselves, they're a mixture of the piss weak and the stuff that's been talked about for months already.  There's very little to object to in either the care bill, which introduces the Dilnot proposals, albeit with the cap set higher than he advised, or the pensions reform act, although we can quibble about why those who've never had it so good will be getting a further increase when everyone of working age suffers.  More objectionable are the "offender rehabilitation" bill, which will see the probation service part-privatised and those sentenced to under 12 months coming under supervision for the first time, which isn't necessarily a good thing when it's the likes of G4S and A4E that'll be "helping" them not to reoffend, and the latest in a long line of crime/anti-social behaviour acts, which looks set to further infringe on the rights of teenagers to be seen in a public place, while also holding whole families responsible for the actions of one member.

Then we have the immigration bill.  It's come to something when someone so closely associated with Cameron as Ian Birrell is denouncing this latest piece of nonsense in the most virulent of terms, but such is the point we've reached thanks to the panic over UKIP.  How many times does it need to be said that immigrants pay far more in than they take out, or that you can't make things harsher for those who few who are claiming benefits without doing the same for those born here?  For a government supposedly dedicated to reducing the burden of red tape, it has no qualms about imposing more on private landlords, who will somehow be required to check whether those renting aren't here illegally, without explaining how this will work in practice.  Are landlords meant to be the newest arm of the Home Office? Doesn't making illegal immigrants homeless increase the potential problem rather than reduce it? We can't deport every single one, as the Liberal Democrats said at the last election.  Even more concerning is the potential limit of 6 months JSA for those resident elsewhere in the EU if they can't prove they have a chance of finding a job.  Something so obviously discriminatory can't possibly be legal, unless as mentioned above it was introduced across the board.

Whether it's a good thing or not that neither the introduction of a minimum price for alcohol or requiring cigarettes to be sold in plain packets made it in is debatable.  I've long doubted something so easily dodged as making strong booze more expensive would work in practice, although evidence suggests it's had an impact in Canada.  Nor have I ever believed that the packs cigarettes come in somehow persuade people to start smoking, yet if the industry is so vehemently opposed to it then perhaps there's something there after all.  Much as I loathe the hypocrisy behind making smokers pariahs when the government benefits so massively through heavily taxing them, and the cigarette model is the obvious one when it comes to decriminalising drugs, it's exceptionally difficult to feel the pain of those who in the end profit from giving people cancer. Politically, dropping both probably makes sense for Cameron.

Does it though for Clegg? This is an overwhelmingly Tory set of bills, with very little indeed for Nick or the Lib Dems to boast about.  Clegg has also failed to fully kill off the "snooper's charter", which can still be resurrected and doubtless will be considering the lobbying of late from the security services.  As this is also likely to be the last Queen's speech before the election, it provides a dismal summary of just what they've achieved in the coalition.  As for the Tories, today just reinforced how they intend to fight the election: by blaming the continuing dire state of the economy on Labour.  Everything that's still deemed to be wrong or unreformed will be Labour's fault, and all they'll do if you let them back in will be to borrow more.  The party that demands everyone else take responsibility continues to accept none itself.

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Tuesday, April 02, 2013 

Attack as defence, the Osborne way.

There are but two explanations for George Osborne's emergence from his hole at the Treasury and journey to a business somewhere in the country that would let him on the premises.  First, that it was intended to wind up all those who've dared to suggest that there's something of a disjunct between the government saying to those in social housing who've got an extra bedroom that they either need to move or accept a cut in their benefit, and the tax cut for those earning over £150,000 coming in at the end of the week, and who better to give such a sermon than the man himself?  Osborne is already so widely disliked that he can't possibly get any less popular than he already is, so it saves another minister having to take a battering.  Second, it gives every indication that the coalition is severely rattled at the level of criticism it's come in for over the weekend, having presumably concluded as I had that surely the time for opposition and marches would have been when, err, the legislation making the changes was going through parliament.

As yesterday showed, when ministers are confronted with something approaching the reality for hundreds of thousands rather than the exceptions of one or two, as Osborne again relied upon today, they quickly come unstuck.  In fairness to Iain Duncan Smith, he couldn't possibly answer in any way other than saying, yes he could live on £53 a week if he had to.  He could hardly say anything else: either that it was the exception, when it's not, or that he wouldn't be able to, implying the current rates are too low when they are now being cut in real terms, or that he didn't want to get into "one individual's set of circumstances". That didn't however stop Osborne relying on exactly that tactic, despite having done so when referring to the now non-existent claims of over £100,000 a year on housing benefit.  Cue a petition which urges IDS to prove it, 315,000 having signed so far, remarkable for one set up just over 24 hours ago.

Politicians are of course incredibly comfortable when they can so blithely get away with the assertions made by Osborne today and by dozens of others over the past few years.  It's incredibly easy to characterise those on benefits as a whole as "doing the wrong thing" regardless of those individual circumstances when even the BBC falls into line with the narrative that has been so assiduously driven by the Tories and the tabloids, Labour having started it and since then either actively colluded with or failed to challenge it anywhere near strongly enough.  Presented with the fact that those under 25 on just Jobseeker's Allowance do have to try and get by on £56.25, while those lucky enough to be over that age are treated to an extra £14.75, it becomes much harder to claim that such levels of benefit "trap people in poverty and penalise work".  Yes, there are and have been cases where when both housing benefit and child benefit are taken into account there's not much of a difference with the take home pay on minimum wage, but the system had already been tightened to such an extent before this month and also prior to the coalition coming to power that those trying to play the system soon found themselves either sanctioned or ineligible for JSA altogether.

Osborne's attempt to try to sugar his extremely bitter pill by admitting the Thatcher government put people on incapacity benefit to remove them from the jobless statistics is, while welcome, not much of a difference from what the coalition is doing now.  As we've seen, those on some of the myriad of work experience or mandatory schemes now built into the JSA regime are in fact being counted as in work, despite receiving nothing other than their benefit and expenses.

It really isn't worth getting truly angry about his speech in general, especially as that's just the emotion it was obviously intended to garner, but there is something really morally and intellectually bankrupt about claiming that benefits resemble a "something-for-nothing" culture.  Regardless of whether or not you pay income tax, everyone contributes to the public purse somewhere along the line, whether through VAT, fuel duty or otherwise.  It's also a despicable way to describe a system which is currently failing so many, whether it be those who've successfully appealed against the ruling that they're fit for work, the hundreds of thousands on the so-called Work programme still without a job, those sanctioned to meet internal Jobcentre targets, or most disgracefully of all, those told to work for their benefit indefinitely, apparently written off from ever finding actual paying employment.

It also took chutzpah to go back to that other Thatcherite mainstay, the "vested interests".  Who exactly are the vested interests when it comes to benefits?  The churches?  The charities?  The Labour party, out to keep the poor in their place so they keep voting for them?  Who knows, as Osborne didn't expand on who these wicked people always opposing change are, or even if some have how they could possibly be described as having a vested interest in doing so.

This isn't to doubt that in general terms, ever harsher crackdowns on welfare are popular for the most part.  Touch something that person receives though, and they often quickly explain how they're different or more deserving than anyone else.  Many also simply don't know what the actual rates are: when they find out some are on only slightly more than £53 a week, it doesn't much resemble the easy option of "doing the wrong thing" the likes of Osborne try to claim it is.

Too sweeping as it is to suggest that personal experience of hardship might change some minds, or in the case of politicians make them think twice, not least as IDS spent plenty of time amongst the most disadvantaged when he set-up the Centre for Social Justice (he also says he's been on the breadline twice) in the vast majority of cases it at the very least helps.  The reason the changes to welfare enrage so many is that George Osborne and David Cameron have never experienced economic hardship (Cameron most certainly has experienced personal hardship, of the kind no one can envy), or even had to want for anything, at least within reason.  They decry anything that could be even passably associated with class war, yet they think the way to incentivise those at the top is to cut their tax while the way to reward those doing "the right thing" is to err, freeze the minimum wage.  They deliver lectures on responsibility, yet they take none over the state of the economy.  It's not just that their policies are wrong, it's that they have and will make things worse, all while they attribute the most base motives to their opponents. It shouldn't and doesn't have to be this way.

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Monday, March 25, 2013 

Haven't I heard all this before?

If there's one thing you can say about David Cameron's speech on immigration today, it's that it was clever politics.  It worked on one level, and one level only: that of the tiger repelling rock.  The government knows full well that the number of Romanians and Bulgarians likely to come here next year is going to be nowhere near as high as the numbers that came after the A8 accession states, so setting out a whole range of new "restrictions" makes perfect sense.  We ended the soft touch system we inherited from Labour and look at the results!  It won't matter that the figures overall will still show net migration of hundreds of thousands rather than tens, at least there aren't many of those nasty gyppos or other assorted stereotypes here as we feared, eh?

Other than that, it was just miserable.  It wasn't so much the actual announcements, if you can even call them that, as they were all but identical to those set out by Labour's Yvette Cooper a couple of weeks back with the exception of the requirement for those wanting social housing to have lived locally for at least 2 years.  Even this is undermined by how councils also have a requirement to house those in most need, although naturally Cameron deigned not to mention this.  It was instead that it gave in to every myth, claim and lie we've come to expect from those aiming to profit from scaremongering about immigration: that we're seen as a "soft touch", that the welfare system needs to be reformed alongside immigration itself as it clearly attracts those with no intention of working, and that under Labour immigration was out of control.  All were and are untrue.

It's not that it's wrong to publicise problems with the system, as Cameron said, it's that it's wrong to not challenge the idea that immigrants are here to scrounge rather than work.  Saying that the vast majority are hard workers but then dedicating the remainder of the speech to suggesting there are huge problems rather drowns out the reality.  The emphasis on benefits also spectacularly misses the concerns of most on immigration.  Until very recently, the main concern was not that immigrants from the EU were coming here to claim benefits, it was that they were undercutting wages, stretching the resources of local public services and changing communities beyond recognition.  Cameron today didn't address either the former or the latter, only that there would a renewed emphasis on ensuring employers aren't using illegal immigrants.

Indeed, the major announcement today has been rather buried underneath all the anti-scrounger rhetoric.  The government that ensured ID cards weren't introduced (although they were never going to be after the crash anyway) for us Brits has decided that they're fine and dandy for our friends from the EU should they want to come here, as they'll be the only way of determining just what they're entitled to.  Don't then be surprised if this inevitably leads to the rest of us also needing them at some point in the future.

The problem for Cameron today has turned out that, if anything, he's gone too far even for a press that has always led the way for politicians rather than followed.  The figures we do have suggest that the number of immigrants claiming benefits is low, and that the numbers in social housing are similarly not massively increasing.  On the NHS, ministers simply don't know how much foreign nationals are costing us: it's either £20m or closer to £200m, if we're to believe Jeremy Hunt, which isn't advised.  One suspects it's closer to the £20m figure, but either way it's a drop in the ocean considering the NHS budget is almost £100bn a year, and when as we saw last week George Osborne masterminded an underspend of £2.2bn to help get his borrowing figures in line with the forecasts.

As encouraging as it is that even the Telegraph is calling for politicians to make the case for immigration rather than keep on attempting to woo the UKIP vote (which is, as has been noted, to completely misunderstand UKIP's appeal), we've gone from a situation at the last election where we had at least one party calling for an amnesty for illegal immigrants, even if they tried to kept it quiet, to that same party fully signing up to the Tories' self-defeating measures.  It seems we are as far away as ever from something approaching an informed debate, let alone an informed policy.

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Monday, March 11, 2013 

The Tory party's doomers.

At the very best of times it's extremely tempting to laugh long, loud and hard at the Conservative party.  There are few political parties that would consider either Jacob Rees-Mogg or Peter Bone to be the best people to defend government or party policy, and yet time after time one or tother turns up on Newsnight, Bone only a week ago making the hilarious claim that it was Labour that had a problem with women, at the same time as there are only four women in the cabinet, to the incredulity of Oona King.

Funnier still, at least for those of us on the outside, is the party's continuing love of fratricide.  It may well be true that the Tories have only successfully ousted two leaders in the past 22 years, the same number as the Liberal Democrats, yet the level of plotting and blood-letting that's been involved in the Tory turmoil puts their swifter acting coalition partners to shame.  John Major may well have been doomed after Black Wednesday, but the leadership challenge by John Redwood was the death knell.  Iain Duncan Smith's defenestration is notable now only for how it led to Michael Howard promoting and pushing both David Cameron and George Osborne; IDS is unlikely to have performed much worse than his successor eventually did with the voters.

And so now we have the increasing murmuring against Cameron, although in truth a fair few MPs never signed up to his windmill loving, husky hugging, letting sunshine win the day Toryism in the first place.  It doesn't matter that in power Cameron has been as John B notes to the right of Major's Tories, despite supposedly being tempered by the presence of the Lib Dems, still at the first real sign of trouble there appears to a substantial minority prepared to overthrow him.  Where they've got the idea from that his replacement would do any better is unclear: he or she would still have to deal with Clegg and friends, which precludes scrapping the Human Rights Act or withdrawing from the ECHR, let alone embarking on the kind of ultra-Thatcherite economic fantasy as outlined today by Liam Fox.  Regardless of what happens between now and the election, it will be fought mainly on the achievements of the coalition, rather than what the party can offer were it given the opportunity to govern alone.  Dumping a leader who's more popular than your party midway through your term of office isn't going to play well.

Moreover, if you are going to launch a coup, your chosen replacement needs to offer both a genuine alternative and have something approaching either gravitas or a status within the party able to win over those disgusted or alienated by your actions.  The Tories are in a position similar to that of Labour five years ago, when there simply wasn't anyone able to mount a challenge to Brown and be taken seriously.  David Miliband hadn't succeeded in building himself up enough, and anyone else briefly talked about were either impossibilities (who, like me, remembers that hilarious Newsnight when a focus group decided John Reid was a leader in waiting?) or quickly pulled back, probably once they realised that Damian McBride had a file on them.

I mean, who frankly is Theresa May? She is to the Tory party what Dobbs and Huple are to Yossarian in Catch-22: perfectly agreeable on the ground, but you'd have to be crazy to get in a plane where they're at the controls. She's not even the cliched safe pair of hands, as has been demonstrated by the way her department keeps cocking up or lying about their attempts to deport Abu Qatada.  She's also been helped as home secretary by Labour's splitting off of much of the Home Office's former responsibilities to the justice secretary. Indeed, the way she's been talked up, both by herself and it seems George Osborne, suggests some of this might well be a put up job designed to winkle out open dissent which can then be picked off.

The unhappy fact for the disenfranchised in the party is that there is only one other person with widespread appeal among their number, and he isn't currently an MP. Even if Boris could pick up a seat either through a by-election or through an early "retirement" in a safe constituency, Johnson is hardly the traditional figure many seem to want, nor is it clear how his act, which just about saw him through in London last year for a second time, will play on the national stage. He also might reflect that his party needs to break a whole series of precedents if it's to get a majority in 2015, and that regardless of how good he is, he might not be able to manage it.

Instead, the wisest move for all concerned might well be to spend the next couple of years either establishing themselves as contenders, or grooming those who have the potential to be. Should Ed Miliband not be the next prime minister, there's now a number in Labour ready to take over from him.  Picking up the pieces after a defeat is surely better than pre-emptively smashing your own chances.

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Monday, March 04, 2013 

The Tory malaise.

There's been something almost touching about the way the Tories have reacted to coming third in Eastleigh.  To begin with, despite all the predictions of the party descending into crisis like a Premier League football team that's lost two games in a row, very little in the way of criticism from backbenchers was heard.  After 24 hours some thought better of this and started blaming the usual things: gay marriage, the "Conservative voice" not "clearly project[ing] Conservative core policies or principles", and the more realistic, the lack of organisation on the ground.

Come Sunday, and the panic had finally spread to the leadership.  There was a piece by the prime minister in the Sunday Telegraph, written in boilerplate about how we are in a  "battle to defeat some of the most dangerous challenges in our history" and the only way to ensure victory is to keep doing what we're doing.  There would be no lurch to the right.  Naturally, this means there was instantly a lurch to the right.  Chris Grayling and Theresa May competed on how we would repeal the Human Rights Act, apparently undecided as to whether we should just scrap it or get out of the European Convention altogether, while from out of nowhere came the idea from William Hague that we need to crack down on benefit tourism.  Not that there's the slightest evidence that EU nationals are indulging in such practices (there are legitimate concerns over whether non-EU foreign national are exploiting the NHS), but it makes for a good soundbite and will doubtless appeal to those currently flirting with UKIP.

The funny thing is that this is all a bit late.  It seems to have passed some Tories by, albeit not those who've been blaming Cameron ever since, but they didn't win the last election.  Looking back now, their best chance of a majority may well have been to try to govern as a minority after the election, then gone to the polls again as soon as they thought possible.  They obviously didn't know when they got the Lib Dems on board that the economy would stagnate for the next two years, although there were plenty who warned them their policies would achieve just that, but it was always going to be a uphill struggle to win a majority when you've spent the past half-decade imposing austerity, let alone when you also decide at the same time to go further and faster than Blair ever dared on welfare, education and NHS reform.

This isn't to say that there's no chance they can't turn it around, or indeed that this might prove a moment of false hope for the Liberal Democrats.  The facts are though that the Tories are in a bind: Michael Fabricant can say all he wants that the party hasn't been projecting core policies or principles, but this is utter nonsense.  Apart from the gay marriage bill which some in the party have made so much of for their own reasons, Cameron has for the most part done everything the right-wingers in the party have asked for: they've got their vote on Europe, he's capped benefits and introduced workfare to an extent Labour never dreamt of, free schools are all but the bringing back of selection, the 50p top rate of tax is gone, nuclear power looks to be the favoured way of keeping the lights on, and this has all been achieved with Lib Dem support! It's true that they would have liked to cut inheritance tax, wanted to alter the boundaries to give them a better chance in urban seats and most would rather defence spending was protected instead of international development, but the achievements are hardly inconsiderable.

And yet, and yet, they remain perhaps two further defeats away from wanting rid of the man who remains far more popular than his party. The beginner's mistake being made seems to be to regard UKIP's rise in support as being fundamentally connected with Europe and in turn immigration. In fact if they were to look at Lord Ashcroft's polling it suggests the vast majority of UKIP's recruits are those who've felt disenfranchised for a long time, angry at modern life and change in general rather than newly radicalised by the latest EU outrage. Moreover, they're also irreconcilable, or at least are without at the same time losing the support of almost everyone else.  As the most recent Ashcroft poll also suggested, the vast majority who voted for them in Eastleigh as a protest will return home come the election.  Moving further onto UKIP territory is therefore completely self-defeating, as the result itself suggested.

The real reason for the Tory malaise is far easier to diagnose. Regardless of how there didn't seem to be a protest directly against austerity in Eastleigh, the lack of growth and decline in wages in real-terms is ultimately driving the apathy if not outright hostility towards politics we've become all too accustomed to. Far from offering a solution, Cameron and Osborne tell us all we can do is keep taking the medicine. One thing those apparently ready to challenge Cameron are right about is that this month's budget is crucial.  Osborne is far too like Gordon Brown to not be planning something that will win him and the Tories positive headlines (at least initially) and further tax cuts look the most likely option.

Even if it is enough to stave off those eager to wield the knife, the local elections in May are almost certain to result in a Tory drubbing, as mid-terms invariably do to governing parties.  What Cameron and the Tories need is growth, and there's absolutely nothing to suggest they're going to get it without doing exactly the thing they've said they won't.  And even if they did, they've almost certainly left it too late to reap the benefits if such a change in direction worked.  Then again, what do they have to lose? 

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Tuesday, February 05, 2013 

The Conservatives: still a strange beast.

The Conservative party has long, indeed probably always been a strange beast.  As those determined to make a case for the Tories being the true progressives always point out, it was the first party to have a Jewish leader, the first to have a woman as leader, and likely also to be the first to have a gay leader, although the debate continues over whether the Grocer was closeted or asexual (Ruth Davidson, the Tories' leader in Scotland, is also gay).  Those involved in the laughable skulduggery surrounding Adam Afriyie commented that he had the potential to be the first black leader of one of the big three, although far more probable is that Labour will beat them to it in the shape of either Chuka Umunna or David Lammy.
 
Still, there is no denying that the Tories remain a reasonably broad church.  Just as there has always been a hang 'em and flog 'em and send 'em back wing, so there has also been a socially liberal minority, since suitably expanded.  If anything, those now most threatened with extinction within the party are those with positive views on Europe, such has been the victory for first the Eurosceptic and now the outright Europhobic tendency.  It's all too easily forgotten then that after WW2 and until Thatcher took the helm, the Tories were a solidly one nation party that remained within the social democratic consensus of the time.  Yes, there were the battles with the unions of the 70s, and the slow shift towards neoliberalism, yet the party didn't succeed or for the most part attempt to overturn the liberalising legislation of the 60s that Labour supported and ensured reached the statute book.

I can't then help but be reminded of Peter Mannion in The Thick of It complaining about how he was being regarded as a knuckledragger despite having long been in favour of immigration and not "against gays, most of whom are very well turned out, especially the men."  Cameron's "modernisation" campaign wasn't so much about changing views wholesale within the party as it was altering the public's view of the Tories.  Sure, there are still a few who view the 50s as a halcyon period and everything that's happened since as the country going to hell in a handcart, but it certainly isn't fair to view Cameron's Conservatives as bigoted as a whole.  The nastiness that remains, such as it is, is all to do with their economic policies and determination to portray everyone on benefits as little better than vermin.


All of which only underlines the inherent contradictions and hypocrisies of so many of those on the government benches who oppose gay marriage. As David Cameron put it, he supports it because he is a conservative, even if he couldn't be bothered to sit on the front bench as the bill was introduced. As much as anything, it is the ultimate victory for the conservative view of the family: far from monogamous relationships falling out of fashion as was hoped for by some of the first wave of gay rights campaigners, the opposite is now to be recognised by the state. It's instead fallen to the increasingly desperate ResPublica think-tank to suggest that gay marriage should be opposed precisely because difference should be celebrated, to much general amusement.


Most of the other arguments deployed by opponents have been similarly off-kilter, for the precise reason that there are no serious ones against. Religions are protected, much to the annoyance of some within the CoE who'd like to make their own decision as to whether to conduct ceremonies, and the other claims made about a lack of a mandate for the change or the bill being rushed through simply don't stand up.  There was no mandate for the changes to the NHS, and the speed with which the reforms to welfare and schools have been rammed through has worried few Tories up to now.


Clutching at straws still doesn't quite cover some of the other pleas made for why the legislation must not pass. Charles Moore invoked the inability to consummate the marriage and the difficulties this would mean for getting a divorce, then plucked at marriage being about children, ignoring how gay couples have been able to adopt for a decade now.  Nadine Dorries, bless her, brought up adultery, something she has personal knowledge of. Sir Roger Gale suggested one solution was we should do away with civil partnerships and bring in civil unions, allowing brothers and sisters to register their love if they so wished, as that would be "a way forward" while this was not.  That Roger Gale's opinion on the sanctity of marriage as it stands currently didn't stop him divorcing his first, or indeed second wife is clearly irrelevant.  As for Peter Bone, whose hilarious motif is to invoke Mrs Bone at every opportunity, he felt it should go to a referendum at the same time as the vote on Europe, as "[W]hy is my view, or the leader of my party’s, more important than the person in the Dog and Duck?" It's a good question, and presumably Bone will have no objections then to the introduction of a Swiss-style referendum system, with all that entails.


The result of the vote, that more Tory MPs voted against (134) than in favour (126) isn't wholly surprising.  It's been apparent since the rebellion on Europe in 2011 that there are a substantial number of backbench MPs who believe if Cameron wasn't so wet that the party would have won outright in 2010, and the numbers just about reflect that if you strip out those opposed purely on religious grounds.  It also underlines that Cameron's promise of the 2017 referendum has hardly bought off any of his naysayers, who decided not to acquiesce even in the face of making his conference comment on gay marriage look ridiculous.  The tone of the debate may not have been quite as heated or as near the knuckle as it could have been, barring the one or two who simply had to bring polygamy or incest into it, but it shows the party as still riven between outright social conservatism and tentative liberalism.


It also can't be good for inner party relations.  Those who voted against ought to explain to the faces of their colleagues who are gay why it is they think they shouldn't have the same rights they do.  Iain Stewart, MP for Milton Keynes South, made a very touching speech in which he talked about how he told his parents he was gay, starting the conversation by saying "[Y]ou know, I'm never going to be able to marry".  Should the bill pass through all its hurdles, he soon will.  Those 134 (and those in the other parties who also voted against)  didn't even begin to make the slightest of cases for why he should continue to be denied equality.

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Tuesday, January 08, 2013 

Caught in their own welfare trap.

It's fair to say that I've been rather despairing of the ever increasing attacks on benefit claimants, both those in work and out of it.  The BBC has joined in, surveys seem to suggest ever hardening attitudes towards those both sick and unemployed, there are numerous first-hand reports of those in wheelchairs being accused to their face of faking their disability for payments, and then there are the people who have died while waiting for their appeal against being declared fit for work by ATOS to be heard.  Recessions and hard times almost always result in those one rung down the ladder being kicked by those above them, but the way in which those at the top, whether in politics or the media, have upped the ante over the last couple of years has still managed to shock.

Today marks the end point.  The Conservatives have overreached themselves to such an extent through the benefit uprating bill and the rhetoric surrounding it that the only result will be the undermining of the entire narrative.  It should be remembered that the current popular attitude towards welfare is not the work of either the Tories or the tabloids, it's thanks to Labour's helming of the system.  Not, as the tabloids and Tories have it that they failed to reform it, but rather that they set in motion the exact reforms the coalition have supercharged.  The work capability assessment was Labour's invention, as was replacing incapacity benefit with employment and support allowance, while abolishing income support.  All this was put about with the equivalent of a nod and a wink, which while preferable to the "strivers vs skivers" of late had the same end result: encouraging the tabloids to print ever more articles about scroungers or the very few claiming huge amounts of housing benefit.

This shaming of claimants has been so successful that Labour has completely gone along with it. Faced with Osborne's wheeze of freezing benefits at 1%, they've wanted to talk only of the effect on those in-work, as if those out of work aren't striving for a job, or the sick and disabled making do on their meagre payments aren't worth an in line with inflation rise. Those on the right of the party balked at even this, imagining they were walking straight into Osborne's trap.

As so often in the past, politicians have once again underestimated the public.  Osborne felt certain this would be just as popular as the benefit cap, the undeserving poor put in their place, with minimal impact on those claiming tax credits.  Depending on how the question is asked you get different results, but overall it looks as though opinion is close to evenly split on whether the move is justified or not.  It's certainly nowhere near the 75% support the £26,000 cap receives. What's more, this is the point at which support is going to peak.  Once everyone fully realises how either they or their friends and family will be affected, the number in favour will drop further.

More than anything else, the Conservatives and Osborne continue to mistake their showing in the polls for actual popularity.  The fact is, almost anything government touches is instantly passé: once you're completely open in your loathing for the poor and poorly paid in general, as opposed to the underclass or those taking the taxpayer for a ride, the fightback begins in earnest.  When the politics are so base and so transparent that you're putting up billboards denouncing Labour for daring to say the low paid, the sick and the out of work should see their benefits increase with inflation, something they agreed with last year when Osborne said the same people deserved the rise, you're inviting the parodies and vandalism that will inevitably follow.

It's still come to something though when it's David Miliband, of all people, who exposed his party's cowardice in not going all the way in denouncing this bill for what it is.  It is rancid, and the Liberal Democrats should never be allowed to forget that they supported it. Miliband showed where the money to fund the rise could come from, and even dared to say the problem was unemployment, not the unemployed, underlining just how far the debate has moved from reality when something so obvious has to be pointed out.  When there are simply not enough jobs to go round, where is the fairness in expecting those on JSA to make do on an extra 71p a week?

Even if the Tories are regretting their attempt to create a dividing line, as the likes of Andrew Sparrow and others are implying, and are now attempting to tone down the rhetoric, it's far too late.  The damage has already been done: it's a measure highly unlikely to win many votes, especially coming 2 years before an election, despite the Tories seeming to believe it's just around the corner through the billboard campaign, and it will reinforce amongst those who are claiming what the Tories really think about them.  This is a government that demands responsibility above everything else and yet it refuses to take any itself, whether it's on the double-dip recession that never merits a mention, or the humiliating failure of the work programme.  As Liam Byrne said, in opposition Iain Duncan Smith made clear that "Conservative policies have to work for Britain's poorest communities and ... must be measured by that standard".  Duncan Smith presumably agrees then that the spread of food banks is a wonderful example of the Big Society in action.

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Thursday, November 08, 2012 

The barbecued testicles of a wombat await.

In the pot calling the kettle black stakes, the spectacle of Louise Mensch saying Nadine Dorries has demeaned the role of an MP has to be up there with the Daily Mail declaring the BBC had "woken up to decency", or that other hardy perennial, the Daily Star reporting on the "sick" Brass Eye paedophile special while on the opposite page leering at the 15-year-old Charlotte Church.

Mensch's political career was without doubt a stunt from the very beginning, her place on the Tory a-list of candidates alongside such luminaries as Adam Rickitt designed to attract publicity.  Her resignation after just two years was less about her husband having moved to the US and more, according to err, said husband, to do with how Mensch felt certain she would lose her marginal seat come 2015.  Regardless of who's telling the truth, forcing your party into a unwinnable by-election midway through a parliamentary session doesn't win you many friends: she was duly booed at the Tory conference.

Whether Dorries would get re-elected as MP for mid-Bedfordshire if there was a snap election must similarly be in doubt.  For those of us who have long followed her political trajectory, her decision to flounce off to Australia to take part in I'm a Celebrity hasn't exactly come as a surprise.  It's rather of a piece with her modus operandi of repeatedly doing incredibly stupid things, and then failing to learn the lessons from the disasters that have followed.  Having failed to get the abortion limit reduced from 24 to 20 weeks back in 2008, she blamed Labour and Harriet Harman in particular for having run a shadow whipping operation, something she provided no evidence for whatsoever.

Last year, having changed tact by targeting abortion providers directly over the counselling they also provided, she was humiliated when Frank Field withdrew his support for the amendment while she was still speaking in favour of it.  Undaunted, she blamed Evan Harris for leaning on Nick Clegg to lean on David Cameron, despite it being apparent Downing Street wanted nothing to do with her amendment, as shown by the new health minister Anna Soubry dumping the consultation as soon as she was able to.  Nor is her paranoia limited only to political foes at Westminster, as Tim Ireland discovered: Dorries accused her Liberal Democrat challenger at the last election, Linda Jack, of stalking her, going so far as to report her concerns to the police.  Strangely though, she has seemingly never reported any of the threats made against her to the police, despite having repeatedly made clear how she's persecuted for her views.

Despite all these apparent setbacks, her newly acquired position as scourge of Cameron and Osborne (calling a spade a spade always delights the tabloids) seems to have led to her believing her own hype.  Other than the apparent £40,000 she'll receive for taking part, what else could possibly make her believe going on I'm a Celebrity is a good idea or a wise career move?  With the best will in the world she isn't George Galloway, who was able to recover from his appearance on Celebrity Big Brother through setting himself against the entire political establishment.  Can she really believe she'll be able to gain support for her continuing campaign to lower the abortion limit by living with a bunch of other C-listers in a forest in Australia for a couple of weeks, inevitably made to take part in the bushtucker trials foisted upon the least popular member of the ensemble?  If she does, she's even more disconnected from reality than I thought possible.

All this said, Damian Thompson does have something of a point when he writes the swift suspension of the whip from Dorries is at odds with Cameron's indulgence of Andrew Mitchell.  Also laughable is the amount of nonsense being spouted about Dorries leaving her constituents in the lurch, as though they can't go a month without their representative being in parliament.  Plenty of MPs barely bother to turn up, and there are a number with long-term illnesses who likewise find it difficult to attend regularly.  As long her staff are still working, then the amount of difference the people of mid-Beds are likely to notice is close to nil.

The real issue is, as it has always been, that Dorries has repeatedly lied and misled her own constituents, whether on expenses for her website, or as she herself admitted, how her blog was 70% fiction and 30% fact.  If this latest scheme is part of some bizarre plan to look human and in touch, then it's one based on a fundamental misreading of what the public wants in a politician, which certainly isn't someone so desperate for attention or money that they'll chew on a dingo's bowel while Ant and Dec gurn in the background.  At least she's gotten used to indignity; it's saying something when you can still go lower after being pictured topless on the front page of the Daily Star.

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Thursday, October 25, 2012 

Just an ambulance at the bottom of a cliff.

We are, apparently, out of recessionIt has to be apparently as, depending on where you live, your job or lack of one and your other personal circumstances, it's never been clearer that the official statistics tell only the slightest of stories.  For a hell of a lot of people, there hasn't been any uplift since the crash of 2008 whatsoever: only on Tuesday the ONS released statistics on net national income per head, showing there had been a decline of 13.2% since then, almost double the drop in GDP.  In parts of London and the south east by contrast, you'd be hard pushed to see any evidence that there's been a recession at all: yes, consumers have cut back on their spending to a certain extent, but for the most part unemployment has stayed low and businesses have carried on much as they did before.

Naturally, George Osborne and David Cameron have both taken credit for this first sign of recovery and while not being too triumphalist, have cited it as evidence of their policies beginning to work.  This is in stark contrast to how they, equally naturally, took no responsibility whatsoever for the previous three quarters of negative growth.  Everything other than their interventions were blamed: banks for not lending, the Eurozone crisis, Labour, the jubilee, the weather and Labour some more.  A couple of weeks ago, the word recession did not so much as pass their lips.  Yesterday Cameron informed the Commons while being pasted by Ed Miliband as is now the pattern at PMQ's that the "good news would keep on coming"

And fair enough, growth of 1% between July and September is to be welcomed.  Once you've stripped out the 0.5% apparently accounted for by the making up of time lost for the extra jubilee bank holiday, and the 0.2% added purely by the sale of Olympic tickets, 0.3% isn't quite as impressive, but it is growth nonetheless.  Indeed, if we're being especially charitable and add that 0.5% back onto the last quarter we actually came out of recession then, albeit with a barely noticeable growth rate of 0.1%.  The figures are though prone to revision, as evidenced by the last quarter where the first announced statistics suggested a decline of 0.7%, rather than the 0.4% it turned out to be after they were twice updated.  No one's suggesting they're likely to be revised up in this instance, so it may well yet turn out that shorn of the Olympic factor, the economy remains as flat as my personality.

There's also little indication that this pattern of negative growth followed by slight recovery is going to change.  The last three months of the previous two years both saw negative growth, and betting against that happening again when prices are almost certainly going to rise would be foolish.  Even if we don't suffer an unprecedented triple dip, and that's a very real possibility if the Americans implement their planned cuts in January, our own cuts are due to accelerate over the next two years.  This is still planned in spite of the recognition from the IMF that they underestimated the effect fiscal consolidation would have on growth, and in spite of all the evidence suggesting that if the pace of consolidation was slowed in order to borrow to invest, there wouldn't be a rise in the cost of doing so.  George Osborne previously claimed, entirely wrongly, that the economy was "out of the danger zone".  Both he and Cameron could yet have to eat their words again.

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Tuesday, October 23, 2012 

The Tories can still win in 2015.

According to media consensus, David Cameron and the Conservatives had a bad first week back following the end of the conference season.  Any uplift from the decision to stop the extradition of Gary McKinnon to the US was swiftly curtailed by the belated resignation of Andrew Mitchell, just 48 hours after Ed Miliband had said the chief whip was "toast".  Add in the passing frenzy of George Osborne sitting in first class on a train to Euston having only paid for a standard ticket, his aide attempting to convince the ticket inspector that the Chancellor of the Exchequer couldn't be expected to sit in the pleb wagons as they were trying to watch a film on a laptop, and it isn't surprising there are long pieces, from hacks and Tories alike, suggesting Cameron needs to get a grip.

Cameron, naturally, has an answer to all this.  Away from the ephemeral stuff, the economy is beginning to turn.  Unemployment is down, and on Thursday it seems certain that the country will emerge from the double dip recession of the past 9 months with the publishing of the last quarter's GDP figures.  Inflation is also down, as is crime, and much more questionably, NHS waiting lists.  Everything is moving in the right direction, and shortly, the public at large will begin to recognise the improvement and support from the Conservatives will start to rise again.

There are, equally naturally, a number of holes in Cameron's argument.  While it seems likely there will have been growth in the third quarter, the figure itself will be crucial: economists suggest that anything less than 0.6% will be highly disappointing considering the making up for the lost output of the extra holiday for the diamond jubilee, while the Olympics should also have provided a boost.  If this turns out to be the case, all it will confirm is that we're still bumping along the bottom, with the economy broadly flat.

Similarly, while the unemployment figures are somewhat encouraging, they mask the fact that hundreds of thousands are underemployed, wanting to work longer but unable to get the hours.  The last quarter saw a drop of only 4,000 in those claiming jobseeker's allowance, while the number unable to find a job for over a year has also increased.  The work programme, much praised by Cameron and other ministers, doesn't seem to be working.  As for inflation, it seems certain to surge as fuel bills rise.  Food prices are also destined to increase following extreme weather in both this country and abroad, crops having been decimated.  The report yesterday that increasing numbers of those in work are having to rely on housing benefit to keep a roof over their heads as rents continue to rise is another major worry.  Then there's the cuts still to come, the introduction of universal credit and the problems likely to surround that, as well as the abolition of disability living allowance and the roll out of its replacement, the personal independence payment.

All this, along with the opinion polls continuing to show Labour with a comfortable lead over the Conservatives, as well as making up the ground on which party is trusted most to run the economy, is helping to convince more than a few that this will be a single term government.  Indeed, when it's taken into account that the Tories will need to increase their share of the vote on what they achieved in 2010 (36%) in order to have any chance of forming a government, something there is no indication at the moment they are capable of doing, their chances of remaining in power seem all the more remote.  To strain the point slightly, it should be remembered that the Tories have now not won an election outright for 20 years, longer than the 18 years Labour spent in opposition.

The problem is that this could all too easily turn out to be wishful thinking.  The numbers on the TUC's march at the weekend, while still respectable at 100,000-150,000, were well down on the previous year's, suggesting there's either apathy or resentful acceptance even from those most well disposed to Labour's arguments on the failings of austerity.  This is backed up by the polling conducted by Peter Kellner for YouGov, which found that while the party has won back most of the support it lost to the Liberal Democrats (not surprising when there's now a grand choice of either Labour or the Greens for those of us on the centre-left and beyond) few on the centre or right have yet been convinced to come back.  Moreover, it would be foolish to rule out a Liberal Democrat revival, especially if the party moves to dump Nick Clegg prior to the election, or when their past voters realise they still loathe Labour and the Tories just as much as they always did.

At the moment, Labour is far too dependent on the economy continuing to flatline.  As right as Miliband and Balls are to resist the urge to set out their spending plans this far from an election, this isn't an excuse for the lack of policy initiative elsewhere, or the failure to flesh out what a "one nation" Labour Britain would look like.  The attitude of the party seems to be that the Tories are so incompetent and blundering that they'll effectively knock themselves out of contention, while the Liberal Democrats can be left to expire of their own accord.  This ignores the very real possibility that the problems in the Eurozone could be fixed, that a second term for Obama could result in a delay to America's own fiscal retention programme, or even, against all the odds, that the economy could start growing strongly of its own accord.  The Tories' taking of Blair's advice to start "reforming" immediately means that even if Labour win the next election, the NHS, schools and the welfare system will all be massively changed from how they were in 2010.

Should any of the above happen, the Tory message come 2015 will be simple and effective: do you really want to jeopardise all that's been achieved?  Even if it doesn't, the emphasis will undoubtedly be on how Labour can't be trusted on the economy, taxes or public spending, or for that matter on welfare or immigration.  Ed Miliband will be portrayed variously as a weak, capitulating Brownite, a dangerous left-winger, and as so devious he even stabbed his own brother in the front.  The party's link to the unions and their direct involvement in Ed's election will be played up for all its worth.  The party will also face being attacked from both sides, the coalition parties defending their achievements in government equally combatively.  The idea that Labour can stroll to victory just doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

This isn't so much a warning just for Labour as it is for those of us who have already slipped into the comfortable belief that the additional cuts to benefits won't happen as the coalition will be gone by then.  One thing we can depend on is that the nasty party is back: the 2015 Tory manifesto will be both populist and punitive in equal measure, such has been the failure of Cameron's brand of "liberal" Conservatism, and this will in turn push Labour to the right.  Any Labour government seems better though at this moment in time; the disappointment and disenchantment can come later.

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Wednesday, October 10, 2012 

No responsibility.

Well, that was a perfectly workable speech by the leader of the opposition.

What do you mean, David Cameron's the prime minister and has been for the last two and a half years?  How can he possibly be?  How can you have been in power for that period of time and still be blaming every single problem you face on either the previous government or on other outside forces apparently conspiring against you?  How can someone who praises the virtues of taking responsibility be so completely unwilling to accept it himself?  How can someone with such intellect be so wilfully obtuse?  Or is it that intellect, that apparent belief that all you need to do is aspire and work hard and you'll achieve greatness, in the face of all the evidence that it is still overwhelmingly privilege or lack of it that defines where you'll end up in life, that makes Cameron such a dull boy?

To get away from answering my own questions for a second, we should give Cameron some credit.  Most party leaders lay off the blatant untruths until they're at least a tenth of the way through their conference speech.  Not Cameron: 60 words in and he claims that he came into office with the challenge of making an insolvent country solvent again.  Now, you can play around with what the true definition of insolvent is, but by most reasonable measures we are not and were not insolvent: even if we class insolvent as needing a bail-out, we have not needed one, and would not have needed one regardless of which party won the election.  As pointed out yesterday, George Osborne is now thanks to his superb management of the economy going to eliminate the deficit later than Alistair Darling planned to.  Despite this, the markets have not decided we can't pay our way in the same way they have Spain or Greece.  Half-way through the current parliament, it really is about time that the coalition dropped the act that it's thanks to them we've avoid bankruptcy.

Not that this is even close to crucial when neither George Osborne or David Cameron can bring themselves to admit that there has been no economic growth for the past nine months.  The word recession has not so much has crossed their lips.  Instead Cameron can't "tell us that all is well"; all he can say is that "the damage was worse than we thought, and it's taking longer than we hoped".  All our woes were placed squarely on the Eurozone crisis, down to how Ireland, Spain and Italy aren't buying as much from us as before.  As for who got us in this mess, it was Labour.  Yes, it was Gordon Brown who personally and purposefully crashed the economy.  It wasn't anything to do with the popping of a bubble that politicians of all parties and stripes encouraged, or the sub-prime crisis in America, or the neoliberalism of the past 30 years finally collapsing under its own contradictions, it was Labour.  Labour, Labour, Labour.

And now what do Labour propose, even though they shouldn't be so much as allowed to continue to exist as a party considering what they did to us all?  They want us to borrow more.  It's their solution to everything.  It doesn't of course matter that the coalition is borrowing far more than it planned because of the unmentionable recession to pay for out of work benefits, in spite of which we still have the phenomenally low interest rates the Tories never stop raving about, if we were to so much as deviate from austerity even slightly it could mean our doom.  It also doesn't matter that the high priests of austerity, the IMF, on Monday admitted they'd completely underestimated the effect of cutting government spending and that it was now really time to consider a Plan B, Cameron and Osborne know better.  As for the IMF's prediction that there will be negative growth of 0.4% this year, should that be proved correct it will obviously Labour's fault as well.

When a political party is in trouble, it can do one of three things.  It can change its leader, it can do a thorough analysis of where it's going wrong and why it isn't appealing to voters in the same way as it used to and act on it, or, as the Tories under Cameron are doing, they can just reprise their old tunes and hope it works.  Yesterday it was murder a burglar; today from Cameron it was aspiration, aspiration, aspiration,  the supposed magic ingredient that propelled Thatcher and Blair to successive terms of office once again being turned to.  The problem is, most people only dream and aspire to more when they're comfortably off, when the support's there to help them realise their aims.  The vast majority at the moment are struggling to make ends meet, they're not saving, they're paying off their debts.  And how is the government itself trying to inspire workers?  By telling them to give up their rights in exchange for shares.  Truly empowering stuff.

At its heart, this was a truly with us or against us speech.  Cameron portrayed everyone who disagreed with his policies as either wreckers, snobs, sneerers, scroungers, or comfortable with under achievement.  The section on welfare especially was a disgrace, not just a tissue but a fabric of lies, claiming that some actively made a choice not to get on in life from their very earliest days, not bothering to try at school as they could live on the dole instead, get a free house or flat and laugh at all the strivers doing the right thing, looking in on them as the hard workers look "out of the window dreaming of a place of their own".  He mentioned families claiming 40, 50 or £60,000 a year in housing benefit, when even the slightest attempt at checking found that 99% of claims are under 15k a year, with 0.0025% over 50k.  And yet again there was no recognition that the overwhelming majority of new housing benefit claims are from those in work.  As for the work programme and Cameron's hyping of it, it simply isn't working.  But then how can it when there are simply not enough jobs out there, and when Cameron himself uses such dodgy statistics to claim that under the coalition there have already been more private sector jobs created than under 10 years of Labour?

It wasn't all bad, however.  While it was nothing like the old days under Blair when almost every year saw him all but launching an attack on his own party, Cameron did all but accept it was often his own natural supporters that block new housing developments with nimby or banana attitudes, urging them to accept we need to build more.  


That was though more or less it, and there were so many egregious sections that anything even slightly conciliatory was completely overwhelmed.  Like giving all the credit to Theresa May for the deportation of Abu Hamza, as though it wasn't a legal process that started under the last government simply reaching  its conclusion.  Or hilariously claiming that the Queen is the best head of state in the world. Or telling blatant lies about the coalition's stewardship of the NHS, while not so much as mentioning the reform bill.  Or not so much as mentioning the police after Plebgate, although considering the walloping every other section of the public sector received just for existing, perhaps that was a merciful decision.  It wasn't then so much a flat speech as the final confirmation that Cameron hasn't adjusted to being a leader of the country rather than just a leader of a party, and we're the ones paying for it.

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Tuesday, October 09, 2012 

Osborne delivers in the race to the bottom.

One of the best positions to start from in politics is that if almost everyone agrees on something, either they or the principle itself is wrong.  Obviously, this isn't universal; all the mainstream political parties are opposed to capital punishment, or making abortion illegal, even if there's disagreement on the limitations on the latter, which is a Very Good Thing.  All the mainstream parties are though at least ostensibly in favour of continuing both the war on drugs and the war in Afghanistan, and these are Very Bad Things indeed.

Which brings us in a very round about way to saying that Ed Miliband last week was rather good, despite everyone agreeing that he was.  I do find the whole making a speech without notes and wandering about the stage thing rather tiresome, the equivalent of riding a bike without using your hands, something that is easy to do with plenty of practice, but it was a very decent speech by a man who has been the victim as much of an ever more impatient media and also party than someone clearly not up to the job.  He started off slowly, it's true, but he's been improving ever since.  Derided by the right-wing press last year for his "predator capitalism" speech, which was shaky in both content and delivery yet soon being ripped off by the coalition, there was even less actual content this year and and yet it was lapped up universally.

Once he'd finally finished labouring on about his comprehensive (yes, Ed, most of us went to them as well and were equally scarred by the process) and finally got to the One Nation bit it was perfectly fine.  It was though just a little underwhelming; yes, the Tories have moved so far to the right that they've vacated their old one nation territory and therefore there's plenty of space for Labour to move into, but it isn't much of a rallying cry.  The fact is that most of those old one nation people have shifted to the right with the Tories, and therefore they aren't going to move back. Where then does that leave those of us on the left who want a redistributing but non-nanny state, an adequate safety net without the likes of ATOS deciding who's deserving or not, a publicly owned and controlled NHS and a foreign policy that doesn't involve us either directly funding armed gangs or intervening on their side?  Inside the tent certainly, but with only slightly more say than we had under Blair.

All this though is for another day, as indeed are any definite policies.  Which is fine, as it's utterly pointless for Labour to say what they'd do if they won in 2015 when the coalition doesn't know what it's doing tomorrow.  The contrast between last week's conference and this week's Tory soiree in Birmingham is stark: one was a party finding its feet again as a direct consequence of the coalition's disastrous policies, while the other is, err, a party uncertain of what's to come as a direct consequence of their disastrous policies.  


The old classic of conference time is, if in doubt, bring out the batter a burglar policy.  New Labour did it countless times, briefing to the ever gullible right-wing press that this time they really would be changing the "reasonable force" law to one which would allow you to carry out the most vile torture imaginable on an intruder without PC Plod (or should that be Pleb?) laying a finger on you.  Every time the answer came back that the "reasonable force" rule was working perfectly fine as it already allows you to do anything other than lie in wait for and then shoot burglars in the back as they run away (or alternatively, calling up your friends and family and then battering your assailants to within an inch of their lives once they've reached the road outside your house) and nothing changed.  Regardless of the ever more ridiculous headlines ("new right to attack burglars", says Torygraph), I'm willing to wager that once again nothing will come of Chris Grayling's wheeze.

If only the same could be said for the ordure presented for the conference's delectation by George Osborne.  Osborne is a fairly unique politician in that he actually seems to enjoy being hated: some thought they saw in the Paralympics booing clip his anger and bewilderment at being even less popular than John Terry and Ashley Cole combined.  My view was that his cackle and then laugh was the sign of him loving it.  Osborne wants to be loathed, as in his mind that means his medicine is working; short-term pain will turn into long-term gain.  Not for him the namby-pamby nonsense from of all people, Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome, who recommends an end to the attacks on the poorest as they're the real reason why the party is disliked.  


No, here comes another £16bn of welfare cuts, apparently agreed by Iain Duncan Smith, and directed straight at the children of the unemployed, as though those out of work don't think exactly the same way about having another child as those in work do and whether they can afford it, as though the extra child benefit payment they receive somehow make all the difference.  The same applies to restricting housing benefit to the over 25s, as though everyone under that age claiming it is out of work when the latest figures suggest that 50% are not.  Osborne asked how anyone could justify the incomes of those out of work rising faster than those in work; simple, George.  When those out of work are struggling by on their £70 a week through no fault of their own, a rise in line with inflation is more than justifiable when the average full-time working wage last year was £26,200.  5% of not a lot is still not a lot, while 1.6% of considerably more is, err, considerably more.

Much of it was all too predictable.   Osborne didn't so much as deign to mention growth, or recognise that there had been a double-dip recession, or even that there was such a thing as the unemployed as opposed to scroungers, all while at the same time criticising Ed Miliband for not mentioning the deficit.  That Alistair Darling's plan for reducing the deficit would have eliminated it before Osborne will now manage also went by the by.  Instead we got not reheated old Thatcherism, but the equivalent of pie in the sky: workers of the world hand over your rights and don't unite!  £2,000 in worthless shares in exchange for complete job insecurity; who could possibly object to such a scheme, except, oh, perhaps anyone with half a brain or the European Union?  The only way in which Osborne's brainwave could possibly be attractive is if there isn't any other option, and with the prospect of low to non-existent growth and the introduction of the universal credit, which it seems will demand that part-time workers find full-time jobs or else, desperation might well win out.  


It really isn't over the top to suggest this is like something out of Atlas Shrugged: according to Osborne and the Adrian Beecrofts of the world, it's the John Galts, the strivers and the creators, not the humble workers without whom the business wouldn't be able to function that are deserving of reward and rights.  Britain can deliver, but only it seems in the race to the bottom.

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Wednesday, September 26, 2012 

Marching towards the sound of gunfire indeed.

And so, verily, as we must every year, let us discuss the Liberal Democrat conference. Held this time round in the British seaside resort of choice for sandal wearers, Brighton, a city noted for how it does things differently, what a glorious contrast the arrival of the Inbetweeners would have made had anyone been bothered enough to take any notice.  Attendance by the media is said to have dropped by about 500 compared to last year, and it's not difficult to see why.  Imagining that 2011 would see blood on beards as well as the floor, what happened instead was much the same as at conferences past: occasionally passionate debates, the odd outburst of pure political lunacy from a rather too earnest delegate, a decent speech from Vince Cable and then one which sent everyone back to their constituencies asleep from Nick Clegg.

Why then change a losing formula?  Indeed, this year's outing has been so similar to last year's that you'd be forgiven for thinking the reports from Birmingham had been filed again by mistake.  For all the supposed intrigue behind the scenes, there's been nary a whisper about Clegg's position as leader on the conference floor.  Yes, he made a prize tit of himself with the "sorry" video and he's about as popular with the general public as Andrew Mitchell at a policeman's ball, but then the Liberal Democrats as a party have long cherished mediocrity. Why else would they all but beatify the likes of Shirley Williams, fresh from her role in the Lords as chief protector of the NHS proto-privatisation bill, or Paddy Ashdown, a man who dearly wishes he was still leader so he could be the one helping to ruin the economy?

For if one thing is completely different to last year, it's that the feared double dip recession has arrived and yet it seems to have changed almost nothing.  Last year Clegg was insisting, just as the Tories were, that the coalition had "pulled us back from the brink".  This year, with the borrowing figures for August all but ensuring George Osborne is going to have to abandon his plan to reduce debt as a share of national income by 2015, Clegg in his speech today was still claiming that austerity was essential as otherwise we could still go the way of Greece, comparisons that are according to him too "breezily dismissed".  


It's a message that the party itself has lapped up, delegates voting to stick with "Plan A", even while they voted down the relaxations to planning laws and defeated the leadership on the secret courts bill.  According to Clegg, if "Plan A was as rigid and dogmatic as our critics claim, I’d be demanding a Plan B", and that he and the coalition had already taken "big and bold steps to support demand and boost growth", some of which his party have err, just voted against.  Except as Vince Cable told the conference on Monday, "[T]he central point is that the country must not get stuck on a downward escalator where slow or no growth means bigger deficits leading to more cuts and even slower growth."  Nothing proposed so far by either coalition party has come close to being bold enough to avoid just that.

If anything, power seems to have gone to Clegg's head.  All the time spent hanging around the likes of Cameron and Osborne has infected his rhetoric with their same dividing lines, the ones they themselves learnt from treating Tony Blair and Philip Gould as all knowing sages.  Casting about for villains of the piece, he chose Liam Fox and Ed Balls, as if their recommendations for getting the economy growing were somehow worse than the mess the coalition has delivered.   Balls and Labour were duly blamed yet again for the crisis, as though every other factor was irrelevant, and as if they were the ones who had created the double dip.  He mentioned how while the economy had grown threefold over the last 50 years, welfare spending had gone up sevenfold, without deeming to note how this might be something to do with the population ageing rather than largesse going to scroungers.  To finish off this cavalcade of bollocks, he defended the decision to agree to the drop in the 50p top rate of income tax in return for a further rise in the personal allowance, ignoring for the umpteenth time how this helps the middle far more than it does the poorest.  In an attempt to sugar the pill, he announced the 45p rate would remain in place until 2015, or presumably until he's once again mugged by George 'n' Dave.

This resorting to empty Blairite soundbites didn't just end there, oh no.  If you stripped away the layers to reveal the party's inner core you wouldn't just find an unshakeable belief in freedom, you'd be able to hear it!  It wouldn't be tinny, like libertarian freedom, or thudding, like a socialist's freedom, but rich, amplified and sustained by opportunity!  Earlier on, Clegg declared that his mission was national renewal, and if the party's policies didn't serve that, they served nothing at all, which isn't quite true.  They're serving the Conservatives by keeping them in power.  Instead of listening to Clegg, the party could have called for an end to the coalition, offering support to the Tories only when their policies are genuinely in line.  Doing so couldn't possibly be worse than what seems to be facing them in 2015.

The problem is that even while they're (relatively) enjoying power, the party as a whole doesn't know what it's for.  Even if the socially liberal rather than social democratic wing are in the ministerial positions with the exception of Vince Cable, they aren't distinctive enough in their liberalism to attract new support.  As John Harris tries to get to the bottom of, the likes of Mark Littlewood would push for the party to be known for deregulating business and letting you smoke a joint, and yet neither policy is likely to make it to their next manifesto.  It's all well and good wanting, as Clegg does, to be a third party of government, but you don't get there by being exactly the same as the other two.  In 2010 you thought you knew what the party stood for, and when set against Brown and Cameron Clegg was worth a punt.  Come 2015 and the exact opposite will be the case, unless the party once again acts ruthlessly against a leader who seems determined to lead them to oblivion.

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