Comments on Obsolete: The road to Jeremy redux.

I should declare that I've given up (post SNP)...

2015-09-11T18:54:18.236+01:00

I should declare that I've given up (post SNP) on a Labour majority any time soon. However, staunch losses to UKIP, take 34 off the Tories and with only a little bounce back from the Lib Dems, the Tories no longer are automatically in power. So any optimism is about getting to limbo... And of course my irrational hope that Labour sees that FPTP no longer works for it - so a coalition around changes to our voting system might be possible.

As for rivals stealing your ideas - well if you really believe in the ideas, then maybe it's not all bad seeing them get traction. I believe an alternative optimistic scenario is one where Corbyn doesn't win, but manages to shift the Overton window... now actually I don't believe that is at all likely, but in my heart I do believe the Overton window is probably more important than winning specific victories.

Fantastic comments. My feeling is that Kendall ga...

2015-09-11T15:50:37.642+01:00

Fantastic comments. My feeling is that Kendall gave up fairly early on - and decided there was little point in sketching out new policies or reaching out to the party when there were so few people turning up to the handful of meetings she did hold. For that she obviously doesn't have anyone to blame but herself, but it's at least somewhat understandable. There's little reason to set out alternatives only to have your rivals steal your ideas, as Christian Wolmar might be reflecting this afternoon. If Corbyn does fail then I suspect she'll be back, hopefully better prepared.

I think the other problem with your optimistic view of Corbyn is that even if, in the best case scenario, he manages to win back Green defectors and the odd UKIPer, it's still not going to be enough to win much beyond those 34 seats Kendall pointed out have Tory majorities of less than 3,000. I can't see him having that much of an impact in Scotland, so winning seats back from the SNP is unlikely also. As I said in the piece, the fact is Corbyn's rise just proves how little we all know - if the movement behind him keeps going we could all be proved completely wrong, or the Tories could utterly self-destruct over the EU referendum. I fear though that the response from Cameron today is just the beginning.

As for Corbyn I don't think he's a winner ...

2015-09-11T14:13:53.565+01:00

As for Corbyn I don't think he's a winner in a media age. Yet I think Kendall and others need to recognise that his popularity shows just how much the "consensus" doesn't actually work for many people. Generation BTL is doing fine out of the Tories. Generation Rent, much less so. As we saw at this election - advantage Osborne - Generation BTL come out to vote much more reliably. The press also line up with them.

Yet, the facts remain important. Austerity didn't help the economy and any recovery remains dependent on financialisation. The current fetish for "we can't afford that" is at this moment mostly resulting in a lack of investment that will only bite us harder in the future. Post North Sea oil we have a huge extra looming problem about the balance of payments. All of this with a growing gap in society between G-BTL and G-Rent.

Some of Corbyn's policies in these areas don't look right to me - but at least he sees that maybe these issues need looking at.

If I was optimistic I'd say that throw in something about drugs policy and you have the beginnings of a post-newspaper-demographic movement. Sadly, I don't think Corbyn has that level of vision, or the quality of advice in his team to make it happen. I'd also note that they could do everything I'd wish for right and still not win the next election. But at least they'd have made a start on redefining the party around the problems of today.

Great post. Beyond the condescension, I have two ...

2015-09-11T13:57:08.501+01:00

Great post.

Beyond the condescension, I have two major problems with the Kendall campaign, which I originally had high hopes for, as she clearly has a certain kind of charisma - and at least start in a better place with the press.

First, there was a lack of reaching out to allies. She needed some supporters who were to the left of her, a middle of the road union endorsement, something... To take a leaf from the Blair book, where was her John Prescott?

Second, she needed a signature policy that was clearly distinctive and would make a splash. For example, I had hoped that the "green jobs" position might develop into a campaign about "energy independence" - you could rant about Russian gas and Middle East oil - but you could also invoke the balance of payments and the imbalance of our economy. There had to be something that suggested she could do more than respond to Osborne's strategising, some idea that could put him on the spot. I kept waiting, but it never came. Now my idea has lots of holes, but I'm not actually standing. What's key is her team never came up with anything...

(I appreciate that some really liked the works council thoughts she had, but it was just too small and technocratic...)