Comments on Obsolete: Knife crime and how London is more dangerous than Baghdad.

FYI, there were not 921 murders in New York in 200...

2008-12-24T20:59:00.000+00:00

FYI, there were not 921 murders in New York in 2006. There were 596. In 2007, there were fewer than 500.

I'm not trying to make any point here besides that you should get your facts and figures correct.

Fewer Killings in 2007, but Still Felt in City’s Streets

"Because the enormous discrepency (I'm assuming th...

2008-12-21T23:57:00.000+00:00

"Because the enormous discrepency (I'm assuming the numbers refer to approximately similar populations, although New York is marginally larger) in the murder rate makes it extremely likely that the underlying societal, economic and cultural background of violence are profoundly different."

Granted, I'm six months late on this post, but I wanted to add another important distinction here:

The murder rate in most American cities, while disproportionately high, has little to do with the lives of typical Americans. In Illinois (Chicago, one of the country's more violent cities), at least, as many as 3/4 of murders are tied to gang and drug activity.

In other words, it consists primarily of criminals killing criminals. That's not to make a value judgment about it, but to point out that looking only at murder, excluding the crimes that tend to affect law-abiding citizens (robbery, rape, random street violence), seriously distorts the picture.

"Why shouldn't a city which has reduced the murder...

2008-05-16T11:01:00.000+01:00

"Why shouldn't a city which has reduced the murder rate by a number greater than the total number of murders in the UK be seen as a suitable role model?"

Because the enormous discrepency (I'm assuming the numbers refer to approximately similar populations, although New York is marginally larger) in the murder rate makes it extremely likely that the underlying societal, economic and cultural background of violence are profoundly different. Therefore there's a high risk that the same policies would be ineffective and a waste of time here. It's not just slightly worse there, it's five or six times as bad, although it would be interesting to see a breakdown into domestic, gang and stranger groups.

As a thought experiment:
* In city A guns are more readily available than knives
* In city B knives are more readily available than guns

Therefore concentrating on reducing the supply guns in city A would be sound policy, while in city B it would be a waste of time and actually counterproductive, taking resources away from fighting knife crime.

You can run the same experiment for a city with high proportions of domestic killings against a city with high proportions of gang killings, etc.

Tom. A reduction in crime is a reduction in crime ...

2008-05-15T09:42:00.000+01:00

Tom. A reduction in crime is a reduction in crime from whatever figure we start. Why shouldn't a city which has reduced the murder rate by a number greater than the total number of murders in the UK be seen as a suitable role model? It has had to deal with types of crime which we have only recently started experiencing. Seems like a perfectly good place to start I would have thought even if you don't like their methods or think they are effective.

"there is absolutely no doubt that the city is now...

2008-05-14T19:58:00.000+01:00

"there is absolutely no doubt that the city is now far, far safer for the average citizen than it was."

So's Baghdad, but no one in their right mind would want to adopt the same tactics used there to reduce violence. The fact that New York has gone from extraordinarily violent to violent doesn't make it a role model, somewhere with actually less crime than London might be a good place to start.

I seem to recall Edinburgh, Glasgow and particularly Belfast were all more violent than London, the latter largely due to organised crime and supply of weapons and men to use them.

Quite true. As pointed out in the post though, wh...

2008-05-14T18:55:00.000+01:00

Quite true. As pointed out in the post though, whether the current drop has anything to do with zero tolerance is highly dubious at best.

You are right to point out that there are more mur...

2008-05-14T13:43:00.000+01:00

You are right to point out that there are more murders in New York than in the whole of the UK but you should remember that there was once a time when there were more murders in a singe New York poloce precinct than in the whole of the UK. In 1990 there were 2,605 murders in NYC.

The debate continues about what exactly has brought about the reduction in crime in NYC but there is absolutely no doubt that the city is now far, far safer for the average citizen than it was.